Commodity Trading Companies are Increasing Their Bullish Bets on Commodities

This is all good news for China which is dependent on the status of the world economy and the U.S. If there is confidence in China there will be an increase in most commodity prices as they are now the largest consumer of coal, copper, and cotton. According to the commodity futures trading commission speculators increased their net long positions by 9.8 percent which is the biggest gain since August.

According to some money managers China is the most important factor because they are becoming the largest consumer of a number of commodities as they increase production to meet world demand for their inexpensive products. However, you cannot forget that China is dependent on other countries’ economic growth such as European nations and the U.S. In retrospect Europe and the U.S are the main drivers of increased commodity prices as they fuel the economic engine of China.

Why do hedge funds and other commodity trading companies believe we are going to have an increase in the prices of commodities? Could it be because of China or confidence in the Federal government to avert a disastrous fiscal cliff? I believe it is both. China is now under new leadership which is giving confidence to investors that they will improve their financial climate.

According to a survey by Bloomberg the world economy is in the best shape it has been for 18 months. A commodity strategy that could benefit a speculator would be following the prices of hard commodities such as copper which is used in manufacturing, along with cotton which is used to make clothing. They should also pay close attention to energy such as oil and coal, the largest sources in the U.S and China. This commodity strategy will be directly affected by the economic conditions in the U.S, China, and Europe.

Other markets to be traded based on economic growth but not specific to just growth are interest rates. A trader could also trade the stock indices but they are U.S stocks and may not be directly correlated to economic growth in China. A futures strategy that is bullish on these commodities would be going long by either buying futures contracts or options on futures contracts. Both have different risk and reward scenarios and should be chosen based on a traders risk tolerance. Another futures strategy would be trading spreads. A trader can enter a spread trade with either futures or options.

A futures spread can be done by buying and selling futures contracts on different commodities or different months. An option spread can be done by selling and buying options, calls or puts, at different strike prices. These types of trades are considered to be less risky but also tend to have a smaller amount of profit for the trader. Money managers and traders are expecting a rise in commodity prices in 2013 due to signs of economic growth in the U.S and China but do not expect enormous gains. There are other factors that drive commodity prices such as supply side factors. Traders need to examine both options.

Can You Always Afford Floating Home Loan Rates?

This is one question that many people consider closely. Floating home loan rates, for the most part, are a major concern for potential home loan customers for two main reasons:

• Wider market affects the interest rates.

There are several aspects that determine the floating interest rates for housing loans. Select organizations play a key role in influencing them; such as the Reserve bank of India, International and Local markets such as NASDAQUE or BSE, etc. How do they actually affect the home loan interest rates? The RBI can change the rules and regulations, which in turn will affect the banking operations. Fluctuations of the money market can affect the entire economy, which in turn affects the availability of funds and the housing loan interest rates for customers .

• There can be potential threats.

You cannot anticipate these changes. Worst of all, you cannot control them. If your interest rates lower, you will be happy as a customer. However, if there is, for any reason, an increase in the home loan rates, most consumers may not be in a position to afford the growth in the EMIs easily. The bottom line is, when you choose floating interest rates, you consent to the possibility of these fluctuations.

So, the reality is that it can be a hard road ahead. When you opt for a home loan, the typical tenure of the loan is 20 to 30 years. No one can anticipate the long term changes in the RBI policy, the Indian economy or the lending policy of your lender. You are taking a risk – the size of the same depends on you, though.

How to afford floating rates for home loan?

While it is a risk, the rates are manageable too. Home loan rates in India are always going to vary. Hence, you must take certain strategic actions to stay ahead of the game.

• Ask for the strategic housing loan duration and the interest rate. You should negotiate the details well enough so that your EMI is 30% of your monthly earnings.

• Use the no-prepayment changes clause to your advantage and repay the largest part of your loan when you can.

• Do not ignore better interest rates during the first 5 to 10 years of the home loan duration. If a lower interest rate opportunity is available, then go for a home loan balance transfer. It is a great decision in the long term.

• Understand that there is a possibility of a home loan rate hike over a period of 5 to 10 years. You must stay ahead of this potential landmine by increasing your earnings by investing your savings into the right financial products.

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