Commodity Trading Companies are Increasing Their Bullish Bets on Commodities

This is all good news for China which is dependent on the status of the world economy and the U.S. If there is confidence in China there will be an increase in most commodity prices as they are now the largest consumer of coal, copper, and cotton. According to the commodity futures trading commission speculators increased their net long positions by 9.8 percent which is the biggest gain since August.

According to some money managers China is the most important factor because they are becoming the largest consumer of a number of commodities as they increase production to meet world demand for their inexpensive products. However, you cannot forget that China is dependent on other countries’ economic growth such as European nations and the U.S. In retrospect Europe and the U.S are the main drivers of increased commodity prices as they fuel the economic engine of China.

Why do hedge funds and other commodity trading companies believe we are going to have an increase in the prices of commodities? Could it be because of China or confidence in the Federal government to avert a disastrous fiscal cliff? I believe it is both. China is now under new leadership which is giving confidence to investors that they will improve their financial climate.

According to a survey by Bloomberg the world economy is in the best shape it has been for 18 months. A commodity strategy that could benefit a speculator would be following the prices of hard commodities such as copper which is used in manufacturing, along with cotton which is used to make clothing. They should also pay close attention to energy such as oil and coal, the largest sources in the U.S and China. This commodity strategy will be directly affected by the economic conditions in the U.S, China, and Europe.

Other markets to be traded based on economic growth but not specific to just growth are interest rates. A trader could also trade the stock indices but they are U.S stocks and may not be directly correlated to economic growth in China. A futures strategy that is bullish on these commodities would be going long by either buying futures contracts or options on futures contracts. Both have different risk and reward scenarios and should be chosen based on a traders risk tolerance. Another futures strategy would be trading spreads. A trader can enter a spread trade with either futures or options.

A futures spread can be done by buying and selling futures contracts on different commodities or different months. An option spread can be done by selling and buying options, calls or puts, at different strike prices. These types of trades are considered to be less risky but also tend to have a smaller amount of profit for the trader. Money managers and traders are expecting a rise in commodity prices in 2013 due to signs of economic growth in the U.S and China but do not expect enormous gains. There are other factors that drive commodity prices such as supply side factors. Traders need to examine both options.

Forex Tips for Beginners

If you would like to get involved with investing in the Forex market for the first time, getting valid and useful information before you get started could really improve your chances of making consistent increases in your Forex account. These Forex tips for beginners should be a great starting point.

Find a Low Risk Trading System

There are many trading systems and strategies in the market. You will most likely have to spend some money to find a proven Forex system that you could learn and master. It is recommended that you find a Forex system that is conservative in its winnings. Remember that with high returns come high risks. Aim for a consistent small monthly return. The effects of compounded interest will increase the growth rate of your account through time. Even a 2% to 4% increase of your account every month is a successful growth rate.

Be Disciplined With Your Trading

If you have decided on a trading system, make sure you test it on a demo account first until you feel comfortable with the system. Once you start trading with a live account, make sure to set weekly and monthly goals. If your monthly goal is to grow your account 4% per month, you can reach your goal by achieving 2% in the first two weeks and the other 2 in the second two weeks. If you achieve your 4% in your first week, then your target is reached and you can stop trading. Do this consistently and you are sure to grow your account every month.

Have the Proper Mindset

Making winning trades in the Forex market has nothing to do with trying to guess the price movement of currency pairs even though that’s what it seems like. Nobody can predict the future. Trading the Forex market is all about finding the trades with the highest probability to succeed according to a proven trading system. Traders always lose trades. Sometimes they lose more trades than they win. But at the end of the day it’s all about how much your account has grown.

Always Trade With a Stop Loss

Since not every trade is going to be a winning trade, the best policy is to always have a stop loss with your trade. A stop loss is the amount of money per trade that you are willing to lose if the trade goes against you. A safe amount per trade is usually 2% to 3% of your entire trading account.

Remember that trading is all about managing risk and your emotions. Rely on your trading system consistently, accept your losses, and make sure you reach your weekly goals. If you are having a losing day, or week, make sure you find opportunities to trade to make up for losses, but don’t get desperate and over trade. Greed and fear can quickly lead to a losing streak.

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